"Our Take" - Gartner Predictions

(Past Editions by: Date, Title, Topic)

 
About "Our Take" 
"Our Take" is a collection of daily vignettes covering a wide range of CRM topics. It's an attempt to add our own spin to the world of CRM. We will use the column to share our perspectives, opinions, epiphanies, web nuggets, or quite frankly anything that moves us. Get ready to expect the unexpected. And, don't be shy about sharing your thoughts.
 
 
12/6/05 - Crystal Ball - V.2006 - MegaCRM?
At the end of every year, prognosticators of all types pull out their crystal balls to tell us what they think will happen in the year to come. I often wish they would score last years predictions before they offer new guesses so I can have a better idea of the batting average for some of these "experts."
 
Just last week, I read about some of the predictions coming from Gartner Group. I won't try to give you the entire list in one column. However, over the next few weeks, I will share the major ones with you and ask your opinion. Here's the first Gartner prediction: Large-scale, long-term CRM initiatives will begin to be approved again in 2006.
 
It has been widely documented that the mega-CRM implementations of years past have been scaled back due to budgets, risk management and the sting of highly visible failures. I have my own doubts that mega-CRM is back in large part because I don't see what has changed to make the big deals palatable. Do you see forces at work that would make large-scale, long-term CRM implementations more common?
 
Gary Lemke, Publisher
(Share your thoughts)
 
12/7/05 - Crystal Ball - V.2006 - Roll Your Own
Let me share another Gartner prediction for 2006. I believe they are on to something and give this prediction a 0.8 probability. (Note: this is not my view on the likelihood of actually coming true, not Gartner’s view.)
 
Gartner predicts there will be a rejuvenation of "build your own" CRM applications in 2006. Yesterday, I shared Gartner's first prediction that mega-CRM would make a comeback in 2006. I feel the probability of that is more like 0.4. But I do believe we will see more organizations create CRM functionality on their own to achieve their business objectives.
 
Why? Two reasons. First, available technologies allow organizations to create functionality quicker with higher degrees of integration. Second, "build your own" solutions allow organizations to create more differentiation in service to their customers - higher value than off the shelf. Care to share your opinion on the buy or build question?
 
Gary Lemke, Publisher
(Share your thoughts)
 
1/4/06 - Another Gartner Prediction
Last month, I shared a few Gartner predictions with you and some of my thoughts about those predictions. Today, I thought I would share another.
 
Gartners says: "Oracle bought Siebel to become the market leader in 2005, but by year-end 2006, SAP will be the larger. To that I say two things. First, does anyone besides Oracle and SAP care? Will market share leadership matter to you and influence your decision over the best solution for your company?
 
My second question to this prediction is "how will we know?" Given the disparate definitions of what constitutes CRM and the lack of transparency in reporting income by product line, does anyone have confidence in market share numbers? I'll let you in on a little industry secret. The market sizing methodologies used by many outfits is suspect at best.
 
Gary Lemke, Publisher
(Share your thoughts)
 
1/6/06 - Another Gartner Prediction
The last Gartner prediction I shared was about the shift of market leadership from Oracle to SAP. The next prediction is an extension of the market share discussion.
 
Gartner says, "By year-end 2008, SAP and Oracle will be challenged by one or two other CRM vendors that have more than 10 percent market share."
 
So while it is often easiest for us to discuss market leadership, let's not forget to think about those companies on the verge of "breaking out." Care to vote who you think will emerge as a CRM market leader in the next few years?
 
Gary Lemke, Publisher
(Share your thoughts)